Break-even win rate: how often do you have to be right?
How often a plan must win just to cover its losses and charges.
One distance either way, and the published charges for your segment and trade date.
Shares held overnight or longer.
Advanced assumptions — open if you need them
At a 2% bracket on ₹500.00 × 200, the round trip costs ₹222.48, so you would have to be right 56.8% of the time just to stand still.
What moves the required frequency. Only the bracket and the charges do — the size of the position barely matters once brokerage is a flat fee.
What it takes just to finish level
- Position value · price × quantity₹1,00,000.00
- Round-trip charges · both legs, published rates only₹222.48
- Charges as a share of position value0.222%
- Right often enough on charges alone · your slippage assumption excluded55.6%
- Edge the charges demand over a coin flip6.8%
- How often you have to be right, all in56.8%
Required frequency = (bracket + cost + impact) ÷ (2 × bracket), on a symmetric bracket. Charges use NSE rates as at 5 September 2026. The slippage figure is yours. Only the published charges are sourced.
| Bracket, each way | Charges only | With your impact assumption |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | 72.2% | 77.2% |
| 1% | 61.1% | 63.6% |
| 2% | 55.6% | 56.8% |
| 3% | 53.7% | 54.5% |
| 5% | 52.2% | 52.7% |
| 10% | 51.1% | 51.4% |
Each file lists the source and the check date for every rate. The CSV comes as two files, the figures and their sources.
The link carries only these inputs. Saved inputs stay in this browser only, and are off until you turn them on.
Try one change
Each button changes exactly one input and says what that did to the headline figure. Reset undoes it.
This total includes the brokerage you typed.
What this calculator does and does not do
What this calculator does
- Basic mode: works out the required hit rate a symmetric target and stop needs, at your own bracket, simply to finish level.
- Advanced mode: takes your own average gross win, average gross loss and cost per trade — the general form, for a reader with a trading record — and gives the required hit rate under those assumptions.
- Prices the Basic round trip from the effective-dated charge schedule for the trade date you pick, in cash delivery, intraday or index options, and takes your own slippage figure because what your order does to the book is not published anywhere.
What it does not do
- Say whether any hit rate is achievable, or that clearing this level makes a method profitable. It is the level at which the arithmetic stops working against you, and nothing more — never a probability of winning.
- Model variable sizing, partial fills, or exits that are neither the target nor the stop.
- Include the bid-ask spread unless you enter it. On index options that spread is usually larger than every statutory charge put together, so leaving it at zero flatters the answer.
Show the method and assumptions
The method
- Basic: required hit rate = (m + c) ÷ (2 × m).
- m is the size of the target and of the stop.
- c is the round-trip cost as a share of the trade value.
- Advanced: required hit rate = (average loss + cost) ÷ (average win + average loss).
What it assumes
- In Basic, the target and the stop are the same size.
- Charges come from the published rates for the trade date you choose.
- Slippage and market impact are a separate input you set.
- The answer is a required hit rate under these inputs, not a chance of winning.
Sources, effective dates and exclusions
- Calculated on
- today
Rates follow the trade date in the form, not today's date.
Source: NSE charges circulars and the SEBI turnover-fee schedule
- Rules in force from
- 1 Mar 2026
- Source published
- not listed
- Last reviewed
- 5 Oct 2026
Source: Finance Act (for STT) and the NSE/BSE transaction-charge circulars
- Rules in force from
- 1 Apr 2026
- Source published
- not listed
- Last reviewed
- 5 Oct 2026
Not included
- Live market prices. Every price here is one you type.
What could change this?
- The bracket. The required frequency depends on the ratio of cost to bracket, so a narrower target and stop raises it without limit.
- The segment and trade date. Published charges differ between cash delivery, intraday and index options, and are resolved for the date you pick.
- Your slippage and impact estimate. It is yours, not published, and on options it usually outweighs every statutory charge.
- In Advanced mode, the average win against the average loss. Bigger wins lower the required rate, and bigger losses raise it. The cost sits on top of either.
The arithmetic, in full
Over a run of trades you win a share p of the time for a gain of m, and lose the rest for the same m. You pay a round-trip cost c every time, win or lose. Setting the total to zero:
p·m − (1−p)·m − c = 0 m·(2p − 1) = c p = (m + c) / (2m)
Two things follow, and both are worth more than the number itself. The required frequency depends on the ratio of cost to bracket, not on either alone. A trader paying half the charges on half the bracket needs exactly the same . And it rises without limit as the bracket narrows. At a bracket equal to the round-trip cost, you would need to be right every single time.
Why this page exists
A frequency quoted on its own has no scale, so it cannot be judged. A figure like 54% sounds like something. Put it next to the level a 2% bracket needs, and it is a losing proposition before is even counted. That comparison puts the required frequency next to the observed one, in the same table. It is the whole educational payload of the base-rate statistics hub, where every historical frequency is published with this column beside it.
A worked example: what 54% is actually worth
Take a bracket of 2% either way on a ₹5,00,000 position. A win pays ₹10,000 and a loss costs ₹10,000. That is the m in the identity above. Suppose the panel prices your round trip at ₹1,000 in charges, and you have entered nothing for slippage. Then:
p = (m + c) / (2m) = (10,000 + 1,000) / (2 × 10,000) = 11,000 / 20,000 = 0.55
Fifty-five per cent of those trades have to come good before the sequence is level. A hit rate of 54% is a losing proposition at this bracket. That is a figure that sounds respectable, and it is quoted without a scale almost every time you see one.
Now halve the bracket to 1%, so a win pays ₹5,000. The same ₹1,000 of charges gives (5,000 + 1,000) / 10,000 = 60%. Nothing about the method changed. The requirement moved five whole points, because the cost is a larger share of a smaller bracket. That is the finding the identity is for. It is why a frequency quoted on its own cannot be judged.
Common mistakes
- Reading the required hit rate as a win probability. It is the frequency of being right that leaves the account level after charges under these assumptions — a threshold, not a forecast of how often you will be right.
- Mixing up percentage and percentage points. A move from one required rate to another is measured in points. The size of the bracket is a percentage of the price. The two are not interchangeable.
- Applying the Basic model to an asymmetric record. Basic assumes the win and the loss are the same size. A record with a different average win and average loss belongs in Advanced, where the required rate can be far from a coin flip.
Questions people ask about this
Why is the required frequency above 50%?
Because a symmetric target and stop pay you the same amount either way, but charges are taken every time. Over many trades the wins have to cover the losses AND the charges on both. That puts the level that leaves you even above a coin flip. How far above depends almost entirely on how wide your bracket is. A wide bracket dilutes a fixed charge. A tight one is swamped by it.
My wins are bigger than my losses — does that change the level?
Yes, and neither figure means anything read on its own. The identity on this page assumes the target and the stop are the same size. That is why the level lands a little above half. Where they are not the same size, it becomes (average loss + cost) divided by (average win + average loss). Say a method's wins are three times the size of its losses. Before costs it is level at a quarter of its trades. Being right one time in five therefore loses money, however good three-to-one sounds. And a method right seven times in ten still loses if each of the three losses is four times a win. A frequency without the sizes beside it, and sizes without the frequency, are each half an answer.
What exactly is included in the cost figure?
The cost figure includes Securities Transaction Tax, the NSE or BSE transaction charge and the Investor Protection Fund levy. It also includes the SEBI turnover fee and stamp duty. On top of those comes 18% GST on the brokerage-and-transaction-charge base, plus whatever brokerage you enter. Each is resolved from the rate in force on the trade date you pick. They come from the same effective-dated table the trade cost calculator uses.
What is not included?
Slippage, market impact, the bid-ask spread, taxes on your gains, and the cost of the capital. Slippage and impact are a separate input you control. Published charges are knowable, and what your order does to the order book is not. On index options the bid-ask spread is usually larger than every statutory charge put together. Leaving that input at zero for options will flatter the answer considerably.
Why does the options answer look so different from the cash one?
Every charge on an index option is charged on the premium, not on the contract's notional value. A premium also moves in much larger percentage steps than a share price. A 20% move in a premium is an ordinary session. A 20% move in a share price is not. So the same charges are a much smaller share of a typical options bracket. The reason options are hard is the spread and the decay, not the statutory charges.
Is a frequency above this level enough on its own?
No. It is the level at which the arithmetic stops working against you, not a level at which anything works. It also assumes a symmetric bracket, and that you take every trade the same way. A real book has variable sizing, partial fills and exits that are neither the target nor the stop.
Where to go from here
The same division this page runs on your figures, worked through on invented ones — and the part the calculator cannot show you, which is how steeply the requirement climbs as the bracket narrows.
Read the lesson Then thisOptions breakeven & charges calculatorFrom how often to how far: the level one index option has to reach before it covers its premium and both orders' charges, and what closing before expiry nets.
OpenLast checked on 5 October 2026.
The hit rate is the share of occasions on which a rule or a decision turned out the way it was meant to.
Read moreImpact cost is the difference between the price shown on screen and the price a trade is actually filled at.
Read more