Yeh kaise hota hai, kadam dar kadam
Shuruaat
Chart mein wahi niyam badhte sample size par dekha gaya hai. Line maapi sahi-trade dar ke aas-paas sambhav daayre ki chaudai hai. Yeh batati hai ki asal dar dekhi dar se kitni door ho sakti hai.
Aage kya hota hai
10 occurrences par daayra lagbhag ±30 percentage points hai. 50 par lagbhag ±14. Kai 100 observations ke baad hi daayra kuch points tak simatta hai. Wahi points kaam ke faayde aur bina faayde mein farq karte hain.
Iska matlab — aur kya nahi
Zyada bharosa karne se maap behtar nahi hua. 12 observations waala niyam poori tarah jaancha nahi gaya. Sirf jhalak mili hai. Isliye 12 jeet ki tasveer saboot nahi hai. Chhote sample par sahi baat yeh kehna hai ki kaunse nateeje abhi bhi sambhav hain. Sirf ausat kehna kaafi nahi.
- Mumkin range ki chaudai (± percentage points)
- ±5 points · 5
Kitne occurrences dekhe, uske saamne asal dar maapi dar se kitni door ho sakti hai.
Chart ka data dekhein
| Dekhi gayi ghatnaon ki ginti | Mumkin range ki chaudai (± percentage points) |
|---|---|
| 10 | 31 |
| 20 | 21.9 |
| 30 | 17.9 |
| 50 | 13.9 |
| 75 | 11.3 |
| 100 | 9.8 |
| 150 | 8 |
| 200 | 6.9 |
| 300 | 5.7 |
| 400 | 4.9 |
| 500 | 4.4 |
Isse kya establish nahi hota
Bade daayre ka matlab abhi pata nahi hai. Iska 1 galat istemaal hai. Bade daayre ka achha kona hi sach maan lena. Dhyaan us sample par dein jo badha aur andaaza aam value ki taraf le aaya. Aksar yahi hota hai. Faisla tab saaf hota hai jab sample itna bada ho ki daayre mein woh aam value na bache.
Kya check karein
4Number kitne occurrences par hai? Sirf dikhaaye kitne, nahi. Kul the kitne?
Us sample size par sambhav daayra kitna bada hai?
Kya us daayre mein abhi bhi bina khaas asar waala jawaab hai?
Chhote sample mein sahi-trade dar ka sambhav daayra bada rehta hai.
Aam galtiyan
2Chhote sample ki sahi-trade dar kehna, bina uske daayre ke. Sample ka matlab usi daayre mein hai.
Sanyog se abhi alag nahi kar sakte ko shayad sach hai, bas sabit nahi, maanna.
Niyam 12 mein se 9 baar sahi hai, ya 75%. Isse kya sabit hua?
- Mazboot asar, kyunki 75% sikke se kaafi upar hai.
- Bahut kam. 12 occurrences par sambhav daayre mein abhi bhi 50% hai.
- 12 se kabhi kuch bhi nahi seekh sakte.
Answer dikhao
B. Bahut kam. 12 occurrences par sambhav daayre mein abhi bhi 50% hai.
Maap hai, par anishchitata lagbhag ±30 percentage points hai. Yeh kaam ke faayde se kaafi badi hai. Yeh bilkul kuch nahi bhi nahi. Aur dekhte rehne ki wajah hai, pakka nateeja nahi. Teesra jawaab doosri taraf zyada kehta hai.
Aksar poochhe sawaal
3Kya trades ki koi pakki zaroori ginti hai?
Nahi. Yeh asar ke aakaar par hai. Bada asar chhote sample mein dikhta hai. Aam taur par daawa kiye chhote asar ke liye kai 100 occurrences chahiye. Tabhi bina asar se farq ho sakta hai.
Mere paas sirf 12 misaalein hon to?
Saaf bataayein ki un 12 se kaunse nateeje abhi kharij nahi hote. Yeh aur dekhne ki wajah hai, turant kadam ki nahi. Aage ka observation sample badhaata hai, bina wahi data dobara istemaal kiye.
Kya backtest par bhi yeh lagu hai?
Haan, aur zyada. Backtest ek hi itihaas par bahut niyam dhoondh sakta hai. Yeh alag mushkil agle page par hai.