Evidence: sabse zyada patterns kuch bhi nahi hote.
Baaki har track batata hai ki pattern hota kya hai. Yeh track batata hai ki woh sach mein kuch hai ya nahi.
Yeh track kis liye hai
Baaki har track yeh sikhata hai ki koi pattern dikhta kaisa hai. Yeh track us se alag sawaal poochta hai: kaise pata chale ki woh pattern sach mein kuch hai. Zyadatar patterns kuch nahi hote, aur unhe alag karne ke liye 4 cheezein chahiye — , , ek , aur naya data.
Track, sahi kram mein
6- Chart Kya Bata Sakta Hai Aur Kya Nahi: Observation, Interpretation, ClaimChart ho chuki ghatnaon ka record hai. Woh chune hue timeframe mein banta hai.
- Ek darjan mauke lagbhag kuch bhi saabit nahi karte.Kam occurrences par maapi sahi-trade dar ke aas-paas anishchitata ka daayra hota hai.
- 60% achha hai? Pehle base rate poochho.Har hit rate ko bina rule wale nateeje se milaana zaroori hai.
- Bahut baar dekhne se kuch na kuch mil hi jaata hai.Bina kisi signal waale data par 40 niyam jaanchein.
- Shuffle test: natije ko kis ke saamne rakha jaaye.Akela number nahi jaanch sakte. Shuffle test tulna ka aadhaar banaata hai.
- Backtest strong hai. Kya live result bhi waisa hoga?Data ke 1 hisse mein mila rule usi hisse par parakha, toh test nahi hua.
Is track ke baad
Agla track: Investing: woh paisa jo rukne ke liye rakha jaata hai.
Is site ka zyadatar hissa khulne aur band hone wali position ke baare mein hai. Yeh track us paise ke baare mein hai jo rukta hai.
Dekhiye is track mein kya hai →Saare tracks aur poori library
Har ordered track, aur unke explainers aur worked case studies ka searchable index.
Learning index kholo →The base rate is how often an outcome occurs.
Aage padhoThe sample size is how many independent observations a measurement rests on.
Aage padhoA null model is a deliberately meaningless version of the same analysis.
Aage padho