Yeh kaise hota hai, kadam dar kadam
Shuruaat
Chart mein rule pehle 60 sessions par sudhaara gaya. Phir bina badle 60 an-dekhe sessions par chala. Line dono hisson ka chalta nateeja hai.
Aage kya hota hai
Pehle 60 sessions mein line lagatar, mazboot badhti hai. Session 60 par data naya hota hai. Line flat hoti hai, phir neeche jaati hai.
Iska matlab — aur kya nahi
Jodne wali jagah ki shape pehchaanein. Session 60 par rule nahi badla. Sirf data badla. Pehle hisse se rule bana tha, doosre se nahi. Pehla hissa us itihaas ka varnan tha. Doosra hi test tha. Usne sahmati nahi di.
- Ab tak ka nateeja (chuni units)
- Level · 0
60 sessions jinse rule bana. Phir 60 jo usne nahi dekhe the. Beech ki jagah rule nahi badla. Sirf data badla.
Chart ka data dekhein
| Sessions | Ab tak ka nateeja (chuni units) |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0 |
| 10 | 22 |
| 20 | 41 |
| 30 | 58 |
| 40 | 79 |
| 50 | 96 |
| 60 | 118 |
| 70 | 121 |
| 80 | 112 |
| 90 | 117 |
| 100 | 104 |
| 110 | 96 |
| 120 | 89 |
Isse kya establish nahi hota
1 alag rakha hissa bhi chhota sample hai. Flat doosra hissa failure ka pakka saboot nahi. Jaise badhta pehla hissa success ka saboot nahi tha. Isse yeh galat seekh na lein ki doosra hissa achha hone tak rule sudhaarein. Phir alag rakha data bhi chunne mein istemaal hua. Woh alag test data nahi raha. Jaanchne ke liye naya sahara nahi bacha.
Kya check karein
4Kya rule usko parakhne wala data aane se pehle likha tha?
Kya us data ne threshold, filter ya date range tay karne mein asar kiya?
Kya alag rakhe sample ka nateeja dekhne ke baad rule badla?
Yaad rakhein: yeh misaal tareeka samjhati hai. Kisi strategy ka daava nahi.
Aam galtiyan
2Alag rakhe hisse par rule sudhaarna. Isse bacha hua test bhi data ke hisaab se dhalna ban jaata hai.
Mazboot in-sample curve ko saboot samajhna. Woh us data ka varnan hai jisse rule bana.
Alag rakhe sample par rule kamzor chala. Threshold tab tak badla jab tak nateeja achha nahi hua. Kya hua?
- Rule naye data par sahi saabit hua
- Alag rakha data chunne mein istemaal hua. Test ke liye kuch nahi bacha.
- Kuch nahi badla, kyunki rule wohi hai
Answer dikhao
B. Alag rakha data chunne mein istemaal hua. Test ke liye kuch nahi bacha.
Data kisi chunav par asar kare, toh woh us chunav ka judge nahi reh sakta. Alag rakhe hisse ke hisaab se badlaav karna test ko phir data ke hisaab se dhalna banaata hai. Agle test ko ab bhi an-dekha data chahiye.
Aksar poochhe sawaal
3Toh kya backtest bekaar hai?
Idea banaane aur galat baatein hataane mein upyogi hai. Rule kaam karta hai, iska saboot nahi. Rule sujhaane wala data uski pushti bhi nahi kar sakta.
Aage dekhna kitne waqt chalna chahiye?
Itna ki sample-size ki ganit nateeje aur base rate ko alag kar sake. Chhote asar ke liye yeh aksar ummeed se bahut lamba hota hai.
Aage ka nateeja kamzor ho, toh?
Dekhna jaari rakhein ya rule chhod dein. Aage ke data ke hisaab se rule badlein, toh test phir dhalna banega. Jaanchne ke liye kuch nahi bachega.