Mahine Ka Shuruaati Session — aage kya hua
Jawab
Kam se kam 300 effective observations. Daur ke dono hisson mein sign ek jaisa. Batane layak, par headline banane layak nahi. Grade kaise tay hote hain.
Seedhe shabdon mein. Yeh mahine ka teesra trading session tha. Share apne 100-day average price ke upar close hua.
t is the third trading session of its calendar month (session_offset = 2) AND close[t] > sma(close, 100)[t]
5 September 2026 ko likha gaya, naapne se pehle. Headline pehle se chuni gayi beech wali setting par hai: mahine ka teesra trading session aur 100-day average price. Registration log dekhiye.
Yeh kis sample par tika hai
Sample
| Design | Ek din ka correlation | Design effect | Effective observations |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raw rate, bina control | 0.127 | 23.93 | 2,697 |
| Control ke saath joda hua (published) | 0.032 | 6.70 | 9,638 |
Public daily bhavcopy mein purani dates ka sector data nahi hai. Isliye sector-concentration check nahi chal saka. Sector-matched version bhi nahi hai. Agar pattern asal mein poore sector ka ek saath chalna hai, toh yeh sample use nahi pakadta. Iska matlab.
Har horizon, apne control ke saath
| Trading days | Dekha gaya | Matched control | Farak | 95% interval | Median badlav | Excess median | 2% par break-even |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 41.9% | 40.9% | +1.1pp | 0.0 to +2.2pp | −0.34% | −0.02% | 55.6% |
| 3 | 45.4% | 44.2% | +1.2pp | +0.2 to +2.4pp | −0.35% | +0.06% | 55.6% |
| 5 | 45.1% | 43.4% | +1.8pp | +0.6 to +3.0pp | −0.50% | +0.02% | 55.6% |
| 10 | 47.5% | 45.3% | +2.1pp | +0.4 to +3.6pp | −0.39% | +0.21% | 55.6% |
| 20 | 49.7% | 46.5% | +3.2pp | +1.8 to +4.3pp | −0.05% | +0.64% | 55.6% |
Distribution hi jawab hai
| Days | p10 | p25 | Median | p75 | p90 | Trimmed mean | Sabse upar ka point | Sabse neeche ka point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | −2.9% | −1.6% | −0.34% | +1.0% | +2.7% | −0.20% | +1.3% | −1.5% |
| 3 | −4.8% | −2.6% | −0.35% | +2.1% | +5.3% | +0.02% | +2.5% | −2.6% |
| 5 | −6.6% | −3.4% | −0.50% | +2.6% | +6.8% | −0.15% | +3.2% | −3.4% |
| 10 | −8.7% | −4.5% | −0.39% | +4.3% | +10.2% | +0.32% | +4.8% | −4.7% |
| 20 | −11.7% | −6.0% | −0.05% | +6.9% | +15.4% | +1.15% | +7.0% | −6.8% |
Saal dar saal, aur market ki haalat ke hisaab se
| Saal | 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 | 2020 | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Farak | +1.1pp | +5.6pp | +2.2pp | −3.8pp | +1.0pp | +3.9pp | +1.5pp | −1.2pp | +0.2pp | −2.5pp | +2.9pp | +2.1pp | +2.9pp | +2.9pp | −0.4pp | +5.4pp |
| Effective n | 67 | 366 | 301 | 462 | 406 | 389 | 483 | 424 | 419 | 519 | 865 | 940 | 744 | 1,547 | 999 | 631 |
| Market, apne 200-day average ke saamne | Volatility | Farak | Effective n |
|---|---|---|---|
| Upar | sabse neeche ka tihai | −10.2pp | 31 |
| Upar | sabse upar ka tihai | −2.7pp | 269 |
| Neeche | sabse neeche ka tihai | +3.5pp | 2,425 |
| Neeche | beech ka tihai | +1.4pp | 3,601 |
| Neeche | sabse upar ka tihai | +1.6pp | 3,285 |
Robustness
Kya yeh dabaav jhel paata hai?
Yeh is pattern ke 25 pre-registered variants mein se ek hai. Yeh is site ke 1,125 tests mein se bhi ek hai. Neeche ke figures isi ke hisaab se adjust kiye gaye hain.
| Daur ka pehla aadha | +1.0pp | Median event date par baanta gaya. |
|---|---|---|
| Daur ka doosra aadha | +2.5pp | |
| Dono aadhon mein ek hi sign | haan | Jo asar sirf ek aadhe mein ho, woh ek daur hai, base rate nahi. |
| Ek hi sign wale saal | 16 mein se 12 | |
| Bina overlap wala subsample | +1.8pp | Har security ka har window mein ek hi event, taaki koi 2 observations din saajha na karein. |
| Published charges ke baad | +2.0pp | Koi move tabhi gina gaya jab usne round-trip charge paar kiya. |
| Censoring ka sabse bura haal | +1.1pp | Har censored observation ko loss gina gaya. |
| Parameter grid ka median | +1.4pp | Headline grid median se door hai — ise knife edge ka nishaan mila hai. |
| Ek session baad shuru karna | +1.7pp | Kai session wala pattern isse bach jaata hai. Pehle bar ki chaal se bana bhram nahi bachta. |
| Placebo: wahi securities, be-mel dates | +0.9pp | Yeh zero ke paas hona chahiye. Agar nahi hai, toh method khud farak bana raha hai. |
| Sector-matched variant | uplabdh nahi | Public bhavcopy se sector ka point-in-time classification dobara nahi banaya ja sakta. |
| Multiple-testing adjusted p | 0.0018 | False-discovery adjustment ke baad bhi tikta hai. |
| session ka number | 20 | 50 | 100 | 150 | 200 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | −1.0pp | −0.2pp | +0.5pp | +0.8pp | +0.8pp |
| 1 | −0.7pp | +0.4pp | +1.4pp | +1.7pp | +1.7pp |
| 2 | +0.1pp | +0.9pp | +1.8pp | +1.7pp | +1.7pp |
| 3 | −0.4pp | +0.4pp | +1.5pp | +1.6pp | +1.8pp |
| 4 | +0.4pp | +1.8pp | +2.8pp | +2.9pp | +3.0pp |
Asli pattern aas-paas ki settings par ek samtal maidan jaisa hota hai. Shor ke beech akela chamakta cell ek threshold ka bhram hota hai. Ghera hua cell pehle se declare kiya gaya beech ka cell hai. Headline usi cell se li jaati hai, chahe woh sabse mazboot ho ya nahi.
Quality checks
| Check | Zaroori | Yeh sample | Nateeja |
|---|---|---|---|
| Effective sample size | >= 100 | 9638 | paas |
| Alag event dates | >= 60 | 356 | paas |
| Alag securities | >= 25 | 2189 | paas |
| Calendar ka faasla | >= 5 years | 14.8 years | paas |
| Ek quarter ka sabse bada hissa | <= 20.0% | 4.2% | paas |
| Ek security ka sabse bada hissa | <= 5.0% | 0.2% | paas |
| Censoring rate | <= 2.0% | 1.7% | paas |
| Relaxation rung 3-4 par events | <= 20.0% | 17.0% | paas |
Yeh kya nahi batata
- Yeh nahi batata ki aage kya hoga. Base rate beete events ke ek sample ka bayaan hai. Bhavishya us sample se nahi nikalta.
- Yeh kisi security ki pehchaan nahi karta. Yeh figures saalon tak saikdon securities ka jod hain. Inse kisi ek security ka bartaav nahi nikala ja sakta.
- Yeh aapke kharche, aapki position size ya aapka tax nahi ginta. Yeh bhi nahi ginta ki aap loss ka daur kitna jhel sakte ho. Break-even column sirf published charges cover karne ki zaroori frequency dikhata hai. Usme slippage, impact aur aapki apni koi baat shaamil nahi.
- Control se farak koi edge nahi hai. Yeh ek sample ke baare mein observation hai, uncertainty ke saath naapa hua. Woh observation aage bhi tike, yeh zaroori nahi.
- Interval number se zyada maayne rakhta hai. Jahan interval mein zero aata hai, wahan yeh sample pattern ko market se alag nahi kar paata.
- Sample size jaisa dikhta hai, waisa nahi hota. Ek hi din ke events aapas mein azaad observations nahi hain. Upar dikhaya gaya effective sample size dekhiye.
Is page ke sawaal
Matched control kya hai, aur har number ke saath ek kyun hai?
Har event ke liye usi date ke milte-julte securities liye gaye. Unka price band, realised-volatility band aur traded-value band wahi tha. Par unhone khud shart poori nahi ki thi. Is daur mein Indian market lagbhag har 3 rolling 20-din windows mein se 2 mein chadha. Isliye koi bhi long-side pattern lagbhag 60% ke paas frequency dikhata hai. Akele us number ka koi matlab nahi. Chhapne laayak number dono ka farak hai, koi ek nahi.
Effective sample events ki ginti se chhota kyun hai?
Ek hi din ke events azaad observations nahi hain. Sab ek market move baantte hain. Effective sample size is baat ko ginta hai. Har interval aur check isi ko use karta hai, raw ginti ko nahi.
Kya yeh batata hai ki agli baar kya hoga?
Nahi. Yeh figures sample mein beete events ginte hain. Har result ke saath uncertainty hai. Yeh agla event predict nahi karte, na kisi security ki sifarish karte hain.
Kya isse charges cover hote?
Break-even column ek symmetric 2% target aur stop ke liye ek frequency dikhata hai. Itni frequency sirf published charges cover karne ke liye chahiye. Is page par woh level 55.6% hai, jabki dekha gaya figure 45.1% tha. Isme slippage, impact aur aapki apni koi baat shaamil nahi. Yeh sab ise galat taraf le jaate hain.
Doosre registered patterns
Close Wapas Average Ke Upar
Close apne 20 din ke moving average ke upar wapas aaya, aur us se pehle woh kai sessions neeche bita chuka tha. Is shart ki definition aur uski limits.
Kholo →Gap down below 20dma
The stock opened at least 2% below yesterday's close, on a day when it was already trading below its 20-day average price.
Yeh page abhi English mein hai.Kholo →Average Ke Upar Gap Up Khula
Share pichhle band se tay doori upar khula, aur woh already apne 20 din ke moving average ke upar tha. Shart, grid, control aur is study ki limits.
Kholo →Poore Bazaar Ka Girta Din
Jis din eligible securities ka median tay seema se zyada gira — shart bazaar ki hai, ek naam ki nahi. Study ki definition, uska control aur uski ginti.
Kholo →Shabdon ka matlab · Apne bracket ke liye zaroori frequency nikaalo
Agla kadamYeh figure kaise bana
Point-in-time universe, usi dates se liya gaya matched control, aur interval. Saath mein woh quality checks jo koi bhi rate dikhane se pehle sample ko paar karne hote hain.
Methodology padhoSource. NSE daily bhavcopy. Data 2026-08-06 tak. Stock list: point-in-time, har date par jaisi thi. 2026-09-05 ko naapa gaya. Kaise naapa jaata hai · Shabdon ka matlab · Yeh figures download karo, CC BY 4.0 licence ke tahat.