Implied volatility: daam ke andar chhupa hua anumaan.

Ise kaise padhein

Baaki cheezein daam banati hain: kitna samay bacha hai, strike kahan hai, spot kahan hai. IV woh ek cheez hai jo bachi hui rehti hai — jo daam se peeche ki taraf nikali jaati hai. Isliye kehna ki 'IV badh gaya' aur 'option mehnga ho gaya' lagbhag ek hi baat kehne ke 2 tareeke hain.

Iska matlab yeh bhi hai ki IV kisi ek aadmi ki raay nahi hai. Woh us daam mein hai jahan par kharidne aur bechne wale mile hain.

Aur volatility ka matlab yahan sirf hilne ka size hai, uski disha nahi. Bade move ki umeed dono taraf ek jaisi ginti hai. Isliye badhta hua IV kisi taraf ka ishara nahi, sirf ek chaude daayre ka ishara hai.

IV ko aam taur par anishchitata ke daam ki tarah padha jaata hai. Kisi tay tareekh wale bade event se pehle woh badh jaata hai, kyunki sambhavit natijon ka daayra chauda ho jaata hai. Natija saamne aate hi woh gir jaata hai, aur is girawat ko volatility crush kaha jaata hai.

Isi wajah se ek holder us din bhi ghaate mein aa sakta hai jis din move theek usi taraf gaya jis taraf usne socha tha. Ek hi expiry ke alag-alag strikes par IV ko saath rakhne se dikhta hai ki market alag-alag natijon ko kaise price kar raha hai. Aur use asal mein hue move ke saamne rakhne se pata chalta hai ki options us hisaab se mehnge the ya saste.

IV koi maapi hui cheez nahi, ek pricing model ka output hai — isliye us model ki har assumption chup-chaap isme aa jaati hai. Aur woh utna hi achha hai jitna woh premium jisse woh nikala gaya hai.

Patli trading wale strike par IV ek purane quote ka artefact ho sakta hai — aisa quote jise kisi ne der se refresh hi nahi kiya. Aise number ko poore market ki raay maan lena galat hoga. Isi wajah se chain ke bilkul kinare wale strikes ka IV sabse kam bharosemand hota hai.

Experiment mein dekho

IV badalne wala scenario dekho